The Calculation (on the 14th Day at Home)

This morning I woke up with a dreadful thought (after my previous post I have tried to stay positive, remember?). We have 17 million people in the Netherlands. As of today, we have nearly 10,000 people diagnosed with Corona (https://www.rivm.nl/coronavirus-kaart-van-nederland-per-gemeente). We have had Corona for a month now, and have been flattening the curve for two weeks. I read (on https://www.hartvannederland.nl/nieuws/2020/nog-maar-paar-ic-bedden-vrij/) that we have nearly reached the limit of intensive care spots. So we need to keep the curve as flat as it is now. A Harvard professor claimed 40-70% of the world’s population will get Corona (https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/1442932074/harvard-prof-40-tot-70-procent-wereldbevolking-krijgt-corona). Assuming these figures are roughly correct, if we want to continue at the same ‘flattened’ curve, our medicare system can handle 10,000 Corona patients per month. So a safely flat curve will mean 17 million divided by 10,000 is 1700 months = 141 years. That means our great-grandchildren will not see the end of Corona measures. Please tell me something is wrong with my calculations.
I can’t unite this thought with Wuhan being re-opened after a mere 3-4 months. Aren’t they going to re-start the whole epidemic now/? After all, we only need a few Chinese people to get it before a whole pandemic can ensue.

Marc Palmer (@marcpalmerdev) made me feel a little better by saying:

I think the hope is actually “let’s flatten the curve until we get a vaccine”, and I think you missed that a relatively small % of people who get it (~15%?) need hospitalisation. So more like 20 years without needing hospitalisation.

That made me feel a little better. But I am not looking forward to another year of teaching from home.